France speeds up game-planning with possible second Trump presidency looming

PARIS — France is turbocharging prep work ahead of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House in next month’s United States presidential election.
The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs is retooling an internal think tank to examine the different scenarios France might face during a second Trump presidency and come up with responses, a person familiar with preparations said. Polls show Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck leading up to the Nov. 5 contest.
“Trump’s unpredictable but some of his positions aren’t,” the individual, who was granted anonymity to protect relationships, said.
France has repeatedly argued that Europe should invest more in its sovereignty and defense in order to “Trump-proof” its future, given the former president’s isolationist bent, suspicion of NATO and hesitancy to continue backing Ukraine as it fends off Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Tristan Aureau, who was chief of staff to Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot when he was junior Europe minister, will lead the task force’s work on the impact of a Trump presidency. Aureau is the deputy head of the ministry’s internal think tank — which is known as the Centre for Analysis, Predictions and Strategy — which will work closely with Barrot’s staff.
The think tank “will look at his entourage, his positions on Ukraine, the EU and defense,” amongst others, the individual added.
Aureau worked as a diplomatic adviser to French Prime Minister Michel Barnier from 2016 to 2019 while he was the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator. During that time, the British unsuccessfully attempted to bypass the European Commission and negotiate individually with EU members to get a better Brexit deal.
In French diplomatic circles, there are concerns that Trump will try to do the same thing — exploit internal European divisions to weaken the European response to a possible trade war launched under his watch. Trump has made no secret of his plan to impose across-the-board tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on friends and foes alike if he wins the election. At rallies, he’s spoken spitefully about Europe, and, in particular, Germany’s car industry.
On Monday, POLITICO reported that the EU was preparing a contingency plan for a Trump trade war, which included coordinating between EU countries and hitting back hard.
“It’s certain that Trump will try and privilege bilateral relations to maximize his negotiating position,” a Western European diplomat, also granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter, said.
The diplomat said however that he believed in “a consensus” among EU member states to resist Trump’s divide-and-conquer strategies. “We’ve experienced Brexit, we can face it and stay united,” he said.